Wednesday, December 17, 2008

I don't even know what to say right now.

The doom and gloom have continued for me. The bad beats and cold cards were bad enough, but I just can't get my mind in the right place to play well right now. I'm officially done until after Christmas. I just need a break.

After getting killed at 1/2, then .5/1, both full ring and 6-max, I needed to shift gears. I sat at some 10NL 6-max tables for a few thousand hands and found the same trend. The bankroll has been decimated to about $120, so 10NL is about all I can play with reasonable bankroll management. So far that hasn't stopped my KK from getting all in preflop against AJ and having a JJ4 flop (literally), so we'll see what the new year brings. Happy holidays to all. Safe travels and good tidings and all that.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

gogogogogo please please please

Despite burning through 65% of my bankroll this month I found out I qualified for a $20k freeroll through my rakeback provider. I guess it's worth the $300 if I end up winning $1k or something silly. At the very least I'd like to win back the $300 I lost and chalk this week up to the poker gods just testing my will to live before unleashing me on a massive heater.

But more realistically I fully expect to bust out on the bubble while holding AA vs AK. No doubt the guy who busts me will write in the chat box "lol, tough one" just as I send my new LCD monitors flying through the room like frisbees.

I never thought I'd qualify for these tourneys at such low stakes, but I guess I was pounding out a ton of hands last week. Anyone know how many entrants I can expect to be facing off against here? As far as I know it could be anywhere from 500 to 5,000. Anyway, wish me luck. As far as I know this doesn't intrude on my schedule this weekend, so feel free to sweat me to the final table.






Sunday, December 7, 2008

Worst week ever. Seriously, wtf???



This is about 2/3 full ring and 1/3 6-max.

I'm not normally one to complain about running bad, but seriously, wtf is this crap?

I don't know how many times I've had people crushed only to have it go runner-runner to chop, or how many times my steals were 3-bet, or how many times I can miss draws. Wow.

Alright, I'll stop complaining. For now.

Literally the only thing I've got going for me this week is that I'm on track for Full Tilt's Gold status for the end of year bonus ($75) and with that volume of play I will also get about $75 in rakeback as well. So if I can avoid going totally broke I'll still get at least $150 in bonuses.

I think it's about time for good things to happen to me. I'll try to think of something happy to share with my readers for my next post, even if it's not poker related...

Friday, December 5, 2008

I fought the law and the law won...

I took my shot at 1/2 over the last couple days. It did not go well. Overall I lost about $125 on the little adventure. So as of this morning I’m sitting at $316 with probably $20 in rakeback on the way. So really I’m up from my initial investment, this is just a significant setback.

That said, I’m going to take a couple steps back to re-evaluate things. I’ve spent over 6,000 hands playing 6-max tables of various levels with pretty awful results overall. That’s really not that many hands, but at the rate I’ve lost money I need to step back down to .50/1.00 and go back to full ring tables. This will do several things for me:

i) full ring allows one to avoid marginal decisions, and wait for easier decisions, thus reducing expected variance

ii) full ring allows one to play against fewer aggressive opponents, on average, thus reducing expected variance

iii) an equally skilled player will generally make less money at full ring, but if it’s the difference between me being a winner at full ring and a loser at 6-max I’ll take the former.

iv) Rakeback will be less. I will play fewer hands per hour AND the rake is divided amongst more players, so I would expect rakeback to be cut roughly in half for a given table’s hour of play.

So what does this all mean for me? Really nothing. Moving up and down and back again is all part of the game. One of the differences between people who can put in the long haul and those that burn out is the capacity to adjust to changes, especially when it comes to bankroll management. One of the hallmark principles of bankroll management is moving down when things go bad, before they get so bad that it’s all gone.

The good news in all of this is that I’ve been meeting (this week exceeding) my goals for hours played. This was always the hardest part for me given my schedule, so at least I have that to stand on. I still believe I’m a winning player at these limits, so all it takes now is letting the long run kick in. To do that, I need to keep plodding on, making the best decisions I can at the tables, and not letting myself drift away during these downturns.

Based on my web traffic data, it appears that I’ve developed a (very) small following of regular visitors. Feel free to make yourself known by commenting. I’d love to respond to what the readers want to hear. So fire off any questions you may have, and let me know your situation. Are you working your way though the micro limits? Are you thinking of learning poker and want to know what it takes? Are you just some random long-lost friend of mine who stumbled upon the blog? Let me know. For the meantime, I’ve got some more hands to play.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Determined to be an Ironman

With my lack of momentum over Thanksgiving I was feeling a little down about my progress. Today I found out Full Tilt is giving an end of year bonus for Ironman qualifiers. If I get "Silver" for the month I get an extra $50 ($25 for bronze). That seems like incentive enough for me to grind out the month. I'll need to play about 1.5 hours for each of at least 20 days this month for silver.

That $50 will be in addition to my normal rakeback and winnings. So just from rakeback/bonus I should expect at least $150, or roughly $5 per hour. Let's just hope I can win a little on top of that too. To better facilitate this effort I will be playing four tables at a time, three $.50/$1.00 and one $1/$2. This is aggressive and risky, but I'm going to give it a shot.

Also, my wife thinks it's very funny that the "Ironman" requires one to sit in front of their computer clicking a mouse for hours on end.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Falling behind...

I only played twice this week. First getting ready for the holidays, then the holidays. Only 600 breakeven hands this week. Plan on hitting it hard over the next week to make up for lost time. Also trying to load more monies into account. We'll see how that goes. Once I do I'll be mixing in 1/2 regularly. Currently sitting at $425.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Clarification of bankroll requirements and moving up

I'm going to refine my definitions of "required bankroll" and outline my rules for taking shots at the next level. For ease in calculation, all my goals are based on rigidly playing a single level until I hit 500 BB's for the next level, then exclusively playing the next level. There are two things wrong with this.

1) It's not practical. Moving between limits should be a more fluid situation. If playing three tables, I should mix in one of the new limit over time, then two, then be playing all three.

2) It's probably too conservative.

In reality, when I am moving up I should have 500 BB's for the next level down to fall back on. So once I hit 500 BB's for .50/1.00, for instance, I am comfortable mixing in some 1/2 games since if it goes really badly, I'll still have $500 to fall back on to play .50/1. Then it will be until I'm over $1k that I would start mixing in 2/4 games. So the $600 - $800 range will essentially be a transition from .5/1 to 1/2 where I'll be playing both limits concurrently, depending on game selection and just how I feel. Once I'm in the $800 - $1200 range I figure I'll be playing pretty much 1/2 exclusively, and at the top end of that start mixing in 2/4 games. All the while adjusting up or down depending on how I'm running, what the bankroll is, and how comfortable I feel about the limits.

So right now with just over $400 in the roll, with plans to deposit more, I'm starting to mix in 1/2 just to see how it goes.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

blah week, part 2

Last week was stomach flu and flat results. This week I don't think I'll play more than a couple hours. Too much going on with Thanksgiving for the next four or five days. Perhaps I can cram some time this weekend. We'll see.

The other half of my goal is to deposit more money into my account, hence the rather large jump on the goals table for this week. This is not a trivial task at the moment given the state of poker legislation (basically a total mess right now depending on who you bank with), so we'll see if I can accomplish that. I'll keep you posted, but don't expect a real glowing report at the end of the week.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Sort of a blah week.




Here's my latest and greatest. Still just showing cummulative .5/1.00 6-max stats since that's all I'm playing. Next week I'll probably mix in some 1/2 after I load some more money in.

Of note:

A stomach flu shortened my week to a mere 4.73 hours for 1,215 hands. I've also skimmed back from four-tabling since it was getting a little out of hand. I'll have to work my way up from three. But I'm spending a great deal more time exercising better seat selection, so fewer tables may not actually lower my expected return.

On the heels of my "lol downswing" post of roller-coaster downswings/upswings, I added two more even bigger swings this week. Pretty gross really. The net wins for the week are basically flat, but the rakeback is always there, so overall I'm at my highest bankroll since coming back. At the moment it's $416.

I think between depositing more and winning more I'll be playing 1/2 in the next week or so. I'm not hyper-sensitive to moving down if I run bad, so when I hit the $600 range I'll start taking shots and see where it goes from there.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Official goal (graph included)

1) Start with $300*

2) Play .50/1.00 6-max until I have $1k, move up to 1/2 6-max

3) Play until I have 500 BB's for the next level, move up

4) Repeat step 3 until I can make twice as much at 3/6 as I can at my current job

*I will probably add another few hundred to my roll to speed up my ascent to 1/2

Just for fun, I put together a chart to show me just how much money I can win over the next year or so doing this.

Assumptions:
i) 1.25 BB/100 winrate at .5/1
ii) 1.00 BB/100 winrate at 1/2
iii) 0.75 BB/100 winrate at 2/4
iv) 0.50 BB/100 winrate at 3/6
v) I will play 6 hours per week until I really get into a rhthm, at which point I will play 10 hours per week (I just figured that would be somewhere in the middle of 1/2)
vi) I will assume 3 tables at a time until around the 1/2 range where I will kick it up to 5
vii) 27% rakeback is figured into these projections as well

*I should add that while these are realistic assumptions, I in no way expect a nice smooth line up to $100k. Should my fortunes rise or fall in some fashion to not match my goals, I will simply readjust my starting assumptions and work from there. Essentially this is just a tool for me to see what the world could look like in 12 months. Sort of like buying those skinny pants before you start a diet, just so you have some visual motivation to keep you grinding.


So here it is, click for larger image

lol downswing

Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in.

I was glad to show myself that I could shrug off those 65 BB downswings last week. That wasn't so bad. Last night I got an even bigger test. I sat down a four tables, one of which was three-handed against a super-super fish, like 85% VPIP, literally 0% PFR, and an aggression factor of about 0.4 over about 200 hands. He will call down pretty much any two cards to the river and not bet or raise unless he's made a decent hand, say second pair or better. Textbook, cookie-cutter, simple simple opponent.

Well, after losing horrifyingly to him and the others on three other tables for about a half hour I sat out and said to myself "Jeez, I must've dumped like $50 right there." I checked and found out it was actually $80.

So there you have it. -80 BB's in under 200 hands. I didn't feel particularly bad about it, since I knew that I was playing well against bad players, but it still stung a bit to lose 20% of my roll so quickly. That was a landslide. I don't have the chart right now but it will be there in my next weekly stats post.

So I closed those tables and took a break, but I sat right back down with Mr. 80/0 and took back half my losses over the next hour. That felt really good.

One thing's for sure, though. 6-max is way, way more fun than full-ring.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Second update

Second update from on-tilt posted November 16, 2008:

I think I'll try to keep this to a weekly update. I don't want to brag (if things are good) or whine (if bad), I just want to share my progress. I think it will help keep me motivated if I can share as I go.

Also, I love talking about this stuff, so if you've got any questions or comments let me know.

This week I'm only showing my .5/1.00 6-max stats since that's the only thing I've played for the last two weeks.

Of interest:

i) The MGR column at the end is my "gross rake" that's used to calculate rakeback. I get 27% of MGR paid every week. That means over these 10 hours I've made $30.00 in rakeback, or $3.00 per hour.

ii)Look how swingy my graph is. In just 10 hours I've had two 65 BB downswings and one 45 BB downswing. It would be extremely easy for that to occur sequentially which would mean I could reasonable expect to drop $200 in 10 hours. Fortunately enough I had even bigger upswings to overcome this.

iii)Finally, there is nothing really special about these results, so with $30 for rakeback and $30 for normal winnings over 10 hours, I can reasonably expect $6+ per hour playing .50/1.00.



First update

This is my first update posted on on-tilt on November 9, 2008:

An update:



Here's my data so far since I decided to make my roaring comeback to online poker. Roughly 18 hours of play since 9/30, but the majority of it was since I originally made this post 10/23.

$46 in poker winnings, plus about $25 in rakeback over this span. So I'm netting just shy of $4 per hour. As you can see my overall win rate of 1.10 BB/100 is competent, but by no means other-worldly (upwards of 3 is seen as truly expert these days).

I'm also on pace to be an [url=http://my.fulltiltpoker.com/promotions/ironman#multi-table]Iron Man Silver Medalist[/url] for November. That doesn't mean much on it's own, but if I can keep it up it'll break down to an extra hundred bucks every few months give or take.

Welcome to the table.

The following is a post I made on 2+2 on 11/2/08. This really got me going in my plan. Since then I've put in my time and am grinding out my existence. I plan on putting together weekly (at least) updates on my progress and sharing my thoughts about how I'm doing.

From 2+2:
I hesitated to write this all out since it’s LC and wouldn’t mean much to a good portion of you, but I remembered all the times I’d read peoples’ poker lives written out for me to read. Often it was inspirational and I very often learned something from it. So read it or don't, delete it or don't, but I needed to write it out for myself to kick myself in the a$$.

I'm turning 30 in three weeks. I began a serious interest in poker a long, long time ago (mid-90’s) when I saw a WSOP show on ESPN with a friend. Some things Doyle said were very intriguing. Then Rounders came out and I was hooked. The problem was I had no money, at least not enough that I wouldn't mind losing $100 at the local 2/4 game. I decided my best investment into my poker future would be a good book. For some unknown reason the local Barnes and Nobel had a copy of Hold’em Poker by Sklansky. It was the only book on poker there that didn’t promise me that I’d be a big winner, so I bought it. This was around 1998 or 1999. I read the book and very soon after bought Theory of Poker. Right around this time I worked in a public library and was authorized to make new purchases. In no time this small Midwestern library soon had a poker section to rival any within 500 miles (more Sklansky, Malmouth, Lee Jones, Feeney. No Super/System though since it was very hard to find). I was signed up for 2+2 right away. I still remember reading posts by Dynasty, Clarkmeister, Fossilman, Sklansky, and Malmouth. This was on the old yellow forum before they switched software. The funny thing was I still hadn’t played a single hand for real money. I came very close to depositing $100 on Paradise poker back in the day, but I found out that my fiance was pregnant and that sealed the deal for my priorities for the next two years.

When things settled down on the family/career path, I was ready to play. For a number of reasons I didn’t actually deposit money into online poker when first started. Around 2004 I began with two $10 free deposit bonuses on two different sites on the Prima network. I spent about four months grinding out $1.25 SNG’s. I tracked every result in Excel from hand #1. I was determined to turn that free $10 into my retirement fund. After the first month or so I’d turned one account into about $30 and the other to around $20. I got bored and took a shot with the $20 account and busto’d very quickly. After that I was again very meticulous with the $30. Pretty soon I was playing the $2.25 SNG’s (a huge savings in rake) and then ultimately 10NL. At the end of my first Prima run I’d turned the free $10 into $232.

I played the next two years switching games and switching limits, finding my niche. I played SNG’s, NLHE, LHE, PLO, FR, and 6-max. Every few months I’d switch it up and go through the cycle again. The whole time I’d read 2+2 (I’ve always been a better reader than poster, sorry guys) and the latest books (SSHE was huge, along with NLHE:T&P). I also got into a great group of poker friends and we’d play what amounted to the toughest .10/.20 home game around.

Anyway, I’ll get to the more recent developments now. I had taken about nine months off of poker due to various family obligations, most of which my wife started her own business, which meant that I was pretty much on retainer for the better part of a year. That’s hitting a point of equilibrium now, so I can stretch myself again. And as you can tell, I’ve been very conservative and meticulous about record keeping and bankroll management. At least, not playing above my head as to risk total ruin. The only problem with my game that I consistently have is that I spend too much of my bankroll. What it boils down to is that between live play and online, I’ve worked up to and spent about $1k a number of times.

I don’t know if it’s some psychological holding-back that I do to myself, or if the “needs” of the day that end up getting my money are truly worth sacrificing my roll. I know I’ve bought furniture for our house, I’ve paid for many weekend trips to Minneapolis or Chicago (we live near Madison, WI), and I’ve ended up bailing myself out of some other financial pitfall like a broken car or the one time our accountant accidentally double-deducted $1k from our tax bill (that we owed back in a hurry). Basically life kept getting in the way of me making a real run at the tables that I could start building up and working out of micro-limits into small stakes, let alone a sniff at middle or high limits.

I’ve spent countless hours studying the game, poring over 2+2, tables of PT data and win rates and hands per week and how many tables to play and rakeback rates and so on knowing all the while that I’m just on the edge of really making a run at some serious money, but I could never get over the hump.

I’m ready to do what was unthinkable before. I’ve always relied solely on poker to finance my poker. Going back to my first $50 buy-in at a live 2/4 table my live poker bankroll has never been negative. And as I described above, my online roll started for free and has provided thousands.

I’ve prided myself on never taking a risk when it came to gambling. I had to prove to myself (and more importantly my wife) that this is for real, and that I wasn’t risking any “real” money. The only thing I’ve ever spent on poker is what I’ve already won, aside from those first few books.

But now I think I’m ready to actually invest in myself. With a bankroll of zero (the afore-mentioned startup business was the last destination of my roll) I’m going to forgo the step of working $50 into $1k again. I’m going to deposit $1k of my hard earned money over the next month or so and start where I left off at 1/2 and ease into 2/4 and 3/6.. Then it’s just a matter of tuning my mind and body in to putting in the hours, and of course resisting the urge to spend all my money.

Maybe in a year’s time I’ve positioned myself to take the ultimate step of actually “going pro.” I feel like this is the first time I’m actually giving myself a real chance to do that.

I’ve got my first $300 in there now and I’ve been playing the .25/.50 and .50/1 tables while I ease myself back into the swing of things. Despite being tougher than before, there are plenty of soft games at these levels. I haven’t seen any significant differences between the two. There are enough rocks where you can steal a flop or two, and plenty of lags to take to valuetown when the opportunity presents.

So this was long and definitely LC, but I needed to write it down to move myself forward. I owe great thanks to 2+2 and especially the Micros forum. I’ve spent a good amount of time reading many of the strat forums and you guys are truly a class act. It’s a treat to see guys who for all purposes have no business slumming in the micros spending a good deal of time righting people’s wrongs and offering kind encouragement.

Off I go.